You should be a #NoEstimates skeptic. Actually, not just about #NoEstimates, but this is a project management blog.
Of course there is a bit of showmanship involved; after all TED presenters want to make their talks interresting.
Some things to think about:
- We are told about #NoEstimates successes but not about failures; nothing is 100% successful.
- Magic, luck, and hope are not project management tools.
- We have a theory that no estimates are needed but no data to support that theory.
- Humans want to believe into something. We pick up patterns that do not exist. We have to guard ourselves againt that.
- Humans have a tendency to see what they want to see; that is called confirmation bias.
- Correlation is not causation.
I can't comment about the motivations of #NoEstimates proponents. Also, I do not think that they are idiots, I think they are wrong. Think about the particle physicist that found faster than light neutron. Not idiots but wrong.
However, #NoEstimates appears to be opinion based only; I have never seen an indisputable fact about the subject and I have read a lot about it. Not just Tweets but actual lenghty posts and presentations. Everyone is allowed individual opinions but there are no individual facts.
#NoEstimates stated that bad estimates cause problems so we should not estimate. That is throwing the baby with the bath water; what about improving your estimating process because good estimates work? No estimate may be better than a bad estimate but not better than a good estimate.
Keeping an open mind I'll state that nothing is impossible but it might be improbable. I can be convinced but without data it is very improbable that it'll happen. One way of not getting your point across is to turn to a list of "arguments", learned by heart, as a way of defending your point. Skeptics are not mean, they insist on facts.
What do you think? As always questions and comments are welcome.
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